Tracking Changes in the North Country - Youth Panel Study

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The Carsey Institute is working with the Neil and Louise Tillotson Fund of the New Hampshire Charitable Foundation to conduct a research project designed to examine the attitudes and experiences of Coos County's youth as they approach adulthood and must confront the decision to remain in their community or seek opportunities elsewhere. Like rural areas across America facing growing economic uncertainty resulting from the decline of once-thriving industries, youth out-migration in northern New Hampshire has resulted in a net loss of young adults between the ages of 20 and 29 years old. As a consequence of the declining paper and pulp industry, Coos County lost more than a third of this population (35 percent) between 1990 and 2000.

Beginning in early 2008, we launched a panel study with the intent of following all Coos County seventh and eleventh graders every other year for a period of ten years, while simultaneously collecting and analyzing data about a number of economic and non-economic factors that contribute to their successful outcomes as they transition into adulthood. Ultimately, in following the experiences of these two youth cohorts over time and to their commitment and investment in the North Country, our intent is to help North Country leaders gain a better understanding of young people’s decision making.

Our efforts have been to work closely with school administrators and, to the extent possible, gear our research questions to address the specific interests and needs of school and community leaders in Coos County. School superintendants and principals have been very supportive of this project and are looking forward to the potentiality of discerning patterns indicating how the county’s young people will fare as a consequence of divergent social circumstances.

The first round of survey data collection was completed in March 2008. The sample size is comprised of 657 students, representing a high response rate of 78 percent of the initial targeted population. Respondents come from all nine public schools across the county’s five school districts.

In-depth, face-to-face interviews with thirty-seventh grade students and their mothers, also from all around Coos County, were completed in late August 2008. An extra round of data was collected in early Spring 2009, at which point the seventh-grade cohort of students had entered the eighth grade and the eleventh-grade cohort of students were seniors in high school; our efforts were to make contact with the seniors once more before they were off on their own. The next round of data collection will be in 2011.

 We are exploring youths’

  • aspirations for future academic and economic success
  • beliefs about economic opportunities within local communities
  • attachment to the North Country region
  • exposure to the broader world through technology
  • satisfaction with family, school, and community relationships.

Early results from the Carsey Youth Panel Study provide baseline indicators of how the county’s young people are doing, what factors affect their hopes and aspirations and their connections to the community, and under what circumstances young people at risk succeed. As data collection continues, we will be able to talk more definitively about some of the risk factors that predict more and less successful transitions into adulthood. The project is simultaneously collecting and analyzing data about the economic and non-economic factors that contribute to successful outcomes for the young people themselves and to their investment in the North Country.

What is truly unique and important about this project is the potential to track two entire age groups for ten years, beginning with seventh and eleventh grades during the 2007-2008 school year, and ending with 23- to 27-year-old young adults. This is an amazing opportunity from which we will learn from their responses the extent to which their current aspirations will be realized or unrealized. As the research team reconnects with the same students every two years, they will begin to see trends in the decisions young people are making about their lives and their goals. This will lead to the ability to then predict a wide variety of outcomes for youth growing up in Coos County today.

This research will be shared with educational institutions and agencies working with youth to inform the development of intervention programs specific to at-risk youth in New Hampshire’s North Country and elsewhere, integrating the best thinking and practice in the field of youth development with insights gained from this research.

Carsey researchers are committed to tracking participants closely over the ensuing decade in order to provide the most comprehensive data possible, and we will use best practices developed in the field demonstrated to maintain participation, including the presentation of gift cards from locally owned businesses to participants from local businesses in appreciation for the time. These have included:

Dave’s Music Mania, 76 Main Street, Berlin NH
First Run: Home Entertainment, 148 Main Street, Colebrook, NH
Dube's Pittstop, 1564 Main Street, Pittsburg, NH
Stewartstown Video, Main Street, West Stewartstown, NH
Stone’s Pizza, 19 State Street, Groveton, NH

If you have specific questions or comments regarding this work, please contact Carsey deputy director Curt Grimm or call the Carsey Institute at (603) 862-2821.